Art Hackett:
UW history professor Jeremi Suri is one of the country's leading scholars on the Middle East. "Here & Now" reporter Andy Soth sat down with Professor Suri to talk about the surge. He began the interview by asking the professor about the implications of announcing the withdrawal date.  

Jeremi Suri:
I think it's designed to signal to the Afghan insurgents, the withdrawal date President Obama gave, it's designed to signal to them, number one, we don't intend to be a long-term occupation force. We are not there to take control of Afghanistan. Second, I think President Obama is trying to show that we intend to get a lot done in the next 18 months. We expect and hope to ramp up the success that we hope to see in rebuilding the society and creating a stable foundation for us to leave.  

Andy Soth:
You're talking about the success we hope to see, but previous great military powers have found that very difficult in Afghanistan. What is it about that country or its fighters that make it so difficult?

Jeremi Suri:
Well, it's an incredibly difficult place to operate and there’s a long list of reasons why, but there are three that I’ll pull out as the top three. First would be the terrain. It's mountainous, incredibly dry. It has extreme seasonal change, so it's very difficult to operate in as a location militarily, even politically if you're trying to do civil military work. Second, it's not a resource-rich area, so you can't easily live off the land, so you have to have long supply lines. You have to think very strongly and considerably about how over the long term you're going to supply your forces if you get them in. Third thing, Afghanistan is still largely a tribal society. For that reason, they are very organized, experienced, well-formed local groups that are capable and willing to resist outside forces, and they're very good at using the terrain, using the climate and using the limited resources to their advantage.  

Andy Soth:
And that group, among them the Taliban or different factions of the Taliban, what is their relationship with al-Qaeda

Jeremi Suri:
Well, the Taliban is not just one group. We use one label, but it's a group of many, many different people. Some are extreme Islamic fundamentalists, anti-American. Some are simply moving from one faction to another. Others are “accidental guerillas,” people who have been pushed in that direction because they’re angry about the way other groups have operated, maybe even the United States. The Taliban itself therefore has a variety of different kinds of relationships with al-Qaeda. The extreme elements of the Taliban have a traditional close relationship with al-Qaeda that goes back to giving them residence in Afghanistan and allowing the training camps there. Other groups receive money from al-Qaeda. There are many elements of the Taliban that are anti-al-Qaeda. The challenge we face is that the Taliban is a diverse group. We have to figure out which factions we can work with and which ones we have to isolate or kill. 

Andy Soth:
In addition to the military strategy that President Obama talked about, forming an effective partnership with Pakistan. Now, what does that mean?

Jeremi Suri:
Well, it's hard to fully envision that, and that's one of the things that remains very abstract from that speech. It's hard to envision because Pakistan is a country that has lived off of warfare along its borders for quite a long time. Secondly, it's a terribly corrupt, divided government that in many ways does not rule as much as it reigns and steals money. And those are just the facts that we have to recognize. So they're not an easy country to have a partnership with. I think the partnership that Obama envisions is one where we have stability along the border with Afghanistan and where the Pakistanis put efforts into supporting the stability along the border. Second, as Obama said, where the Pakistani government takes efforts to reform its own house, to invest in domestic development. This is very hard when the president of Pakistan is corrupt figure number one.

Andy Soth:
Yeah. And you mentioned along the border with Afghanistan and Pakistan. But he also, Obama also referenced al-Qaeda establishing safe havens within Pakistan. How does that acknowledgment change the dynamics?

Jeremi Suri:
What that does, by acknowledging what we all know, that al-Qaeda has been operating in Pakistan, perhaps even getting aid from the ISI in Pakistan, in acknowledging that Obama is claiming a right for the United States to take action against them. What he's saying is for us to succeed, we are going to send in forces and at times we might need to use those forces to go after Al-Qaeda elements within Pakistan itself.

Andy Soth:
And how might that change our relationship or affect our relationship with Pakistan?

Jeremi Suri:
It's very problematic because many elements in Pakistan don't like the idea of the United States coming in and operating in their territory as we've been doing at times for the past four or five years. I believe Obama is trying to make the case that we're giving them $7.5 billion, as we are giving the Pakistanis. We need to have the ability to go after the bad guys when they go into their society. And that there's a benefit to Pakistan. Hopefully we can convince those who are uncomfortable that they will get long-term returns from helping us, monetarily and otherwise.

Andy Soth:
Now, has al-Qaeda strengthened and regrouped since the US first went into Afghanistan?

Jeremi Suri:
I believe it has. I believe al-Qaeda has regrouped in various parts of the region. They've also recruited people they couldn't recruit before. In some ways our activities in the region have inspired more people to move toward al-Qaeda. They've had a lot of time to spread their propaganda. They do it very well. In those senses, al-Qaeda is stronger than it was before. On the other side of the coin, we have been effective in going after the leadership of al-Qaeda, not Osama Bin Laden himself, but other elements of it, so it's harder for them to operate and harder to bring violence outside the region. I think they are more dangerous in the region than ever before, but less dangerous immediately to us than they were on 9/11.

Andy Soth:
And, lastly, briefly, I know that you taught an online course to some U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. What was that experience like and what did you learn?

Jeremi Suri:
Teaching the online course for American soldiers serving in Afghanistan and Iraq was one of the highlights of my teaching career. I learned so much. These soldiers on the ground are trying to understand the history of the region and trying to operate in the region at the same time. They are living history as well as studying. And I learned from them how hard it is to do that. It's much easier to sit back in Madison, read about this and comment than it is to actually live it and deal with it on the ground. And we need to think about that when we assess the situation. Second, the experience reinforced for me how vitally important it is to understand the language and culture of the region you're operating in. It's not that the Afghanistanis hate us. They don't. But they believe we don't understand them and that we don’t care to understand them. We have to try. That's the only way we can make better policy. I praise those soldiers who are trying to do that. Those in my course were putting not just their bodies but their minds into that endeavor.

Andy Soth:
All right. Thank you very much.

Jeremi Suri:
Thank you.  

Art Hackett:
You can learn more about Prof. Suri and his work by visiting our Web site at wpt.org/hereandnow.