Art Hackett:
We put the road debate in the rearview mirror now and move over to the economy. According to data released this morning, there were 160,000 additional U.S. jobs last month. The numbers were below expectations, but with near 10 percent unemployment, we're thankful for small favors. Here's the updated graph you've been seeing over the past couple of years. The big spike on the right side represents the biggest gain in jobs since November of 2007. That's two-and-a-half years ago. Joining us now to talk about what this means is Edgewood College economics professor Bill Duddleston. Good evening.

Bill Duddleston:
Good evening.

Art Hackett:
Well, today, amazingly enough, is the Brewers exhibition opener. We've had this running baseball analogy going about the economy. Two years now, what inning is it?

Bill Duddleston:
Extra innings. Two years ago was the first inning, so we’re in extra innings. Our relief staff seems to be coming through and delivering some key pitches. The economy is on the rebound, and we cross our fingers and hope for the next few months that this will be repeated. But at least with 300,000 jobs instead of 160,000 because you need 300,000 now to make a dent in the unemployment rate. Unemployment stayed the same. It's not good.

Art Hackett:
When I turned on the radio this morning and they were talking about what they were expecting from this, they were throwing a lot of cold water on this and saying ‘160,000 jobs, not really a big deal.’

Bill Duddleston:
Well, depends which news group you watch.

Art Hackett:
NPR.

Bill Duddleston:
Well, NPR has a good reputation. Forty thousand, 50,000 census bureau jobs, temporary jobs, but they're for young people and their unemployment is very high. So that's positive for them. The birth/death sort of expectation about what's happening with small businesses added 84,000. That may be revised downward in the future. But the positive, I think real positive, is manufacturing. Manufacturing plus 15,000 for March. And for the first quarter almost 50,000. So that's a very important turn-around in the manufacturing sector and that bodes well for Wisconsin, which has a heavy manufacturing job base.

Art Hackett:
We've had this weird situation where last month it was actually negative. Now it's drastically positive. It's almost a whiplash effect. What's causing that?

Bill Duddleston:
Well, they'll blame the weather. The weather was a destabilizing force in February. Basically the economy is gaining traction now, and I think that the next month's figures will be very, very important to show what happens in construction. We only added 15,000 jobs in construction. But if next month, we come out with 50,000, that would be a really positive sign that we're out of the real negative territory for construction, because we were losing 72,000 construction jobs a month in the last year. And so that's a real — that's been a real drag on the economy.

Art Hackett:
You talked about manufacturing jobs being up. That's really important to Wisconsin, isn't it?

Bill Duddleston:
Yes, because we have almost 20 percent of our workers in manufacturing, the highest in the whole country. And so if we can get those exports going to other countries — China, India, Brazil — then our economy will start to grow because there's a positive multiplier tied to those jobs. So I think the Wisconsin economy numbers for unemployment should come in going down for March. And I think right now, we're about a full percentage point below the national average. If we could get down below two percentage points, that would be an indication that the American economy is really turning around.

Art Hackett:
We've got politicians, you know, laying claim to this and blaming the other guy for this. Is there anything that has happened politically that is causing what happened today, this spike?

Bill Duddleston:
No. I think it's cumulative. I would rather stay away from the endless arguments on this group said this, the other group said that. We went through a major inventory correction starting in
2008 and that inventory correction is ending, and we're now starting to rebuild our inventories in anticipation of higher sales. And if that were to happen over the next few months, then you'll see
all those debates go by the wayside. The private sector is going to be critical in getting this economy back on. But there's no question the government sector saved jobs and provided enough cushion to stay at least at 10.3. Ten point three was the highest unemployment rate we've had since 1982.

Art Hackett:
But getting back to this figure that came out today, one positive point was there were quite a few private sector jobs in there.

Bill Duddleston:
That's right. That's right. It's a positive. It's a glimmer of hope. But we can't rest on our laurels because we could go into head winds. I worry about what's happening to long-term interest rates.
The bond market may react negatively to this and actually sell off. I think it has a little bit already this morning. You could see 10-year bonds go above 4 percent and the 30-year bond go above 5 percent, and those are critical for long-term interest rates. That's going to affect the housing market. The housing market has to come back to get the American economy back on track.

Art Hackett:
To continue to beat the baseball analogy, we’ve just got to hope that the relief staff doesn't get tired. Thanks for joining us.

Bill Duddleston:
You're welcome.