Frederca Freyberg:

So we're four days into the Tommy v. Tammy match-up. Of course, we want to get expert analysis right from the get-go. For that we turn to UW-La Crosse political science professor, Tim Dale. Thanks a lot for being here.

 

Tim Dale:

Thanks for having me.

 

Frederica Freyberg:

So Tammy Baldwin says that Tommy Thompson has to spend some time consolidating support from those who voted for Hovde, Neumann or Fitzgerald. He says he's not worried. Should he be?

 

Tim Dale:

I'm not sure that he should be worried. I think there's a lot of voter enthusiasm on both sides, and in terms of the supporters of Hovde and Neumann, there may be a little bit of disappointment because they wanted their candidate, but in the high stakes election like this one, we see parties coalescing, and base of support coalescing, very quickly after a primary election.

 

Frederica Freyberg:

Now, do you expect Thompson to run further to the right than he already has moved, or will the contrast with Tammy Baldwin be sharp even if he stays, kind of,  to the moderate side of the Tea Party?

 

Tim Dale:

I think that we say see him moderate a little bit. Tommy Thompson had to be very concerned in the primary that he appeared like a true Republican. Political climate had changed since Tommy Thompson had run a statewide race in Wisconsin before. So we generally see a slight shift, even if the shift is only talking to issues that are important to moderate voters. He was really speaking to a Republican base that has shifted further to the right. But I think that he is going to be already a sharp contrast with Tammy Baldwin. Voters know these two candidates. And what I think what is interesting is that we are going to see less of a candidate introducing themselves to the electorate, and much more of that direct-to-the-policy questions that we will expect given the notoriety of the candidates.

 

Frederica Freyberg:

But do they know Tammy Baldwin? Because, of course, Tommy Thompson they know and there's great name recognition there. But what kind of time will she have to spend to get to that kind of level, if ever?

           

 

Tim Dale:

Well, she may not get to the Tommy Thompson notoriety, but the advantage that she had was she was running this general election before Tommy Thompson was able to. So we saw Tammy Baldwin as a month or two ago. I think the only gap that she's going to have a where people aren't really paying attention to politics. There are a percentage of voters that aren't really going to care until after Labor Day. So what we're going to see is Tammy Baldwin having a little bit of ground to gain against Tommy Thompson. But I think that the choice voters have, it's stark enough and there's enough difference between the parties, particularly given the presidential election that's going of, that Tammy Baldwin shouldn't have much trouble making up the small deficit in notoriety she has to Tommy Thompson.

 

Frederica Freyberg:

Tommy Thompson swept the western side of Wisconsin, kind of, and the northern part over Republicans challengers. Do you think that he pulls support in districts that elect people like Ron Kind, Kathleen Vinehout and Jennifer Schilling, or is that Baldwin country?

 

Tim Dale:

Well, it's an interest question because I think the electoral dynamics, we still have to get a handle on what's going on. I think Tommy Thompson did better in parts of the state that have more moderate Republicans. I think the western part of the state may be more moderate. I think that the Democrats are more moderate and the Republicans are more moderate.  As far as how Tommy Thompson versus Baldwin will do in places like La Crosse, western Wisconsin, I think Baldwin does have the edge, but I think that it is going to be competitive. The polls were showing us that Tommy Thompson was going to be the best candidate in terms of possibility of winning against Baldwin. I think this is going to be a very competitive place and we're going to see places like western Wisconsin, but even northeastern Wisconsin split nearly 50/50 in this race.

 

Frederica Freyberg:

Wow. Another one. How much does Paul Ryan help Thompson?

 

Tim Dale:

Well, it's going to be interesting because Paul Ryan has a reputation for being a more conservative member of the Republican party. Tommy Thompson, at least his Republican critics were saying he wasn't conservative enough. Where Tommy Thompson is going to be helped in the state is when he's making public appearances with Paul Ryan. Paul Ryan has that certified conservative credential that Tommy Thompson may be looking for in order to mobilize the base, that may be feeling a little bit down for not getting their candidate in the primary. But ultimately, I think, Tommy Thompson is going to be running as Tommy. His yard signs indicate we're not even going to know his last name going into the election because everybody in the state knows who Tommy is. So I think Paul Ryan in a sense is less known in Wisconsin than even Tommy Thompson, and it may help the chances of Mitt Romney that Tommy Thompson is campaigning for the Romney/Ryan ticket in Wisconsin.

 

Frederica Freyberg:

Very briefly, with only about a half a minute left, how much does Barack Obama help Tammy Baldwin?

Tim Dale:

I think Barack Obama helps Tammy Baldwin quite a bit. We saw Russ Feingold loose his last senate campaign in an off-election year for the presidency. One of these mid-term elections. Barack Obama, even with the Paul Ryan selection is ahead in the polls in Wisconsin, although by not as much, and I think what we're going to see is what we usually see in presidential races where a Democrat, a Democratic candidate running and perhaps winning in Wisconsin is going to give a bump to the other Democrats on the ticket, including Tammy Baldwin.

 

Frederica Freyberg:

Tim Dale, a professor UW-La Crosse, thank you  very much.

 

Tim Dale:

Thanks for having me.